03 · What You Need to Know
Prespecification Protects Against Bias, but It Does Not Eliminate the Need for Judgment
Why Eligibility Criteria Are Defined Before Screening
Systematic reviews are intended to identify evidence using methods that are explicit enough to reduce opportunities for selective decision-making. Prespecified eligibility criteria are central to that purpose.
Cochrane describes following prespecified eligibility criteria as a fundamental attribute of a systematic review. The criteria are ordinarily developed from the review question and establish which populations, interventions or exposures, comparators, study designs, and other characteristics define eligible evidence.
Prespecification matters because researchers eventually learn things about the available studies. Once you know which papers report large effects, which support your hypothesis, or which would change the synthesis, eligibility decisions can become vulnerable to those findings.
A protocol therefore does more than organize the project. It creates a record of important methodological decisions before their consequences are fully known.
But Protocols Are Plans, Not Predictions of Every Study You Will Encounter
No protocol can anticipate every feature of a body of literature.
Cochrane explicitly recognizes that unforeseen issues may arise and requires changes to eligibility criteria to be justified rather than prohibiting them altogether. Its guidance also acknowledges that review questions may sometimes require refinement as researchers develop a fuller understanding of the evidence.
The critical boundary is that such changes should not be made because researchers have seen how the studies turn out. Cochrane cautions that changes based on study findings or synthesis results can introduce bias.
This produces a more nuanced rule than “never change the protocol”:
Problem-driven amendment
The original criteria encounter an unforeseen conceptual or methodological problem that prevents them from representing or operationalizing the intended review question appropriately.
Result-driven amendment
The criteria are changed because researchers know which studies, findings, or synthesis results would be included or excluded under the new rule.
The first may be defensible. The second creates a much more serious risk of bias.
Clarifying a Criterion Is Not Always the Same as Changing It
Before describing something as a protocol amendment, determine what actually happened.
Suppose your eligibility criteria say that studies must involve “higher-education students.” During pilot screening, reviewers disagree about whether students enrolled in polytechnics qualify.
If the intended scope always encompassed recognized postsecondary institutions and the problem is simply that the wording was insufficiently operationalized, defining the term more precisely may be a clarification.
Now suppose the protocol explicitly says “students enrolled in bachelor's or postgraduate degree programs,” but you decide after screening begins that vocational students should also qualify. That expands the eligible population and is a substantive change.
| Situation |
Likely interpretation |
What to consider |
| Defining an ambiguous term more precisely without changing the intended scope |
Clarification |
Document the operational definition and apply it consistently |
| Adding a population previously outside the stated scope |
Substantive amendment |
Justification, protocol implications, rescreening, and possibly search changes |
| Removing an eligible study design because it is inconvenient to synthesize |
Substantive amendment |
Strong methodological justification is needed; convenience alone is weak justification |
| Changing a criterion after discovering which studies report favorable results |
Outcome-informed amendment |
High risk of biased decision-making; avoid |
| Correcting an obvious inconsistency between the stated review objective and an accidentally miswritten criterion |
Potential correction or amendment |
Explain transparently what was corrected and why |
The distinction between clarification and amendment can itself require judgment. A useful test is whether the decision changes which kinds of studies can enter the review. If it does, treating the change as substantive is usually the more transparent approach.
Screening Can Legitimately Reveal Problems You Could Not See Earlier
Pilot screening exists partly because criteria that look clear in a protocol can behave differently when applied to actual records.
You may discover that:
- authors use terminology differently from what you anticipated;
- populations commonly span categories you had treated as separate;
- an intervention almost always appears as part of a multicomponent program;
- study designs are reported using inconsistent labels;
- the boundary between two settings is difficult to operationalize;
- an apparently straightforward publication-date rule produces unintended consequences; or
- a criterion does not actually distinguish the evidence relevant to the review question.
These problems do not automatically justify changing the criteria. They do justify examining whether the original rule remains conceptually and methodologically defensible.
This is one reason consistent application of inclusion and exclusion criteria requires more than mechanically following ambiguous wording. The objective is consistent eligibility decisions that remain aligned with the review question.
The Most Important Test Is Whether the Change Depends on the Findings
Consider two very different reasons for expanding an eligible population.
Reason A: During early screening, you discover that studies routinely combine first- and second-year university students, although your original criterion inadvertently specified first-year students only. Your review question was intended to concern beginning university students more broadly, and you recognize that the criterion does not represent the intended construct well.
Reason B: You discover a second-year student study reporting an unusually large effect that would strengthen your argument, so you decide that second-year students should count after all.
The amendment may look identical on paper. Its methodological meaning is not.
Cochrane states that protocol changes must not be made on the basis of the findings of the studies or the synthesis. This is because knowledge of results can influence methodological choices in ways that favor particular conclusions.
Watch Out
Ask whether you would make exactly the same amendment if the affected studies reported the opposite result. If the answer changes once you imagine different findings, the proposed amendment may be result-driven rather than question-driven.
Do Not Change the Criteria Just to Get a Better Number of Studies
Another tempting reason for changing eligibility is the size of the evidence base.
Your criteria produce only four eligible studies, so you broaden them until you have twenty. Or your search produces hundreds of potentially eligible studies, so you add restrictions to make the workload manageable.
Neither situation automatically justifies an amendment.
A small evidence base may be an important finding about the state of research. A large evidence base may require additional resources or a more carefully scoped question, but arbitrary post hoc restrictions can alter what the review is answering.
Sometimes the scope genuinely is too broad or too narrow and revision is appropriate. The justification, however, should concern the coherence, feasibility, or scientific purpose of the review rather than reaching a preferred number of included studies.
Changing Eligibility Can Mean You Need to Revisit Earlier Screening
A criterion change does not apply only from the moment you make it.
Suppose you originally excluded vocational-college students but later expand the population to include all tertiary education. Records excluded earlier because they involved vocational students may now be eligible.
Those decisions need to be revisited.
Identify what changed Determine exactly which eligibility boundary has been expanded, narrowed, removed, or clarified.
Identify affected decisions Determine which records or full-text reports may have received a different decision under the revised criterion.
Rescreen where necessary Reassess affected records using the revised rule rather than applying two different eligibility standards across the review.
Check downstream stages Consider whether data extraction, appraisal, synthesis, or other completed work is affected.
Otherwise, studies encountered before the amendment and studies encountered afterward may effectively be screened against different protocols.
Expanding the Criteria May Require a New Search
This consequence is particularly easy to overlook.
Suppose your original review includes only university students, so your search strategy was designed around university and higher-education terminology. Halfway through screening, you expand eligibility to secondary-school students.
Simply rescreening your existing results may not be enough. The original search may never have been designed to retrieve school-based studies comprehensively.
Cochrane's guidance on updated reviews makes the same methodological point: when important changes are made to the review question or eligibility criteria, parts of the search may need to be rerun back to the earliest records to ensure that studies relevant under the revised scope were not missed.
Whenever eligibility expands, ask:
Would my original search have identified the newly eligible evidence?
If the answer is uncertain, the search strategy may need revision and rerunning.
Narrowing the Criteria Can Also Require Reassessment
If the amendment makes eligibility narrower, studies already included under the earlier rule may no longer qualify.
That creates an obvious methodological consequence. You cannot normally apply the stricter rule only to studies screened after the amendment while allowing earlier studies to remain because they have already been processed.
Reapply the revised criterion to the relevant earlier records and document the resulting changes.
If the proposed narrowing occurs because certain studies complicate the synthesis or weaken the apparent effect, that should raise particular concern. Methodological inconvenience and undesirable results are not interchangeable with scientific justification.
An Important Study Is Not, by Itself, a Reason to Rewrite the Rules
One of the hardest cases occurs when you discover an influential study that does not meet the original criteria.
The study may be foundational. Everyone in the field cites it. Excluding it can make the review feel incomplete.
But prominence does not establish eligibility. If the study clearly falls outside a valid criterion, it may still be appropriate to discuss it as theoretical, historical, methodological, or contextual literature without counting it among the formally included studies.
The problem of handling an important study that does not meet the original criteria should therefore be separated from the question of whether the criteria themselves are defective.
Protocol, Registration, and Review Report Should Tell the Same Methodological Story
When a substantive amendment occurs, transparency requires more than remembering it yourself.
Cochrane requires methodological changes from the protocol to be transparently declared. PRISMA 2020 likewise asks authors to indicate whether a review protocol exists and to describe and explain amendments to information provided at registration or in the protocol.
Depending on the review and the platform used, this may involve:
- dating the amendment in the project records;
- recording the original criterion;
- recording the revised criterion;
- explaining why the change was necessary;
- updating the protocol or registration where the system permits or requires it;
- describing the amendment in the completed review; and
- explaining any resulting changes to searching, screening, or analysis.
The objective is not bureaucratic perfection. It is to allow readers to distinguish decisions planned before the evidence was examined from decisions made later in response to unforeseen circumstances.
Changing the Review Question Is a Larger Decision Than Clarifying Eligibility
Sometimes what looks like an eligibility problem is actually evidence that the research question itself has changed.
If your review originally asks about university students and you decide to include all learners from primary school through postgraduate education, you may no longer be refining a population criterion. You may be asking a materially different question.
Cochrane recognizes that review questions can sometimes be modified as understanding of the evidence develops, but emphasizes the need to guard against data-driven questions and to document changes to the protocol.
When a proposed eligibility amendment substantially changes the population, intervention, exposure, comparison, outcomes, or eligible study designs, ask whether the project is still the same review. In some circumstances, revising the protocol substantially or beginning a new review may be more methodologically coherent than stretching the original question beyond recognition.
Different Review Types Carry Different Expectations
The concern about protocol amendments is strongest for systematic and similarly structured evidence syntheses because prespecification is part of their methodological architecture.
JBI guidance likewise expects systematic review protocols to state explicit, unambiguous inclusion criteria, and its reporting guidance calls for protocol amendments to be reported. Scoping reviews also normally establish eligibility criteria prospectively, although their broader exploratory purposes can lead to different decisions about how criteria are formulated and refined.
A traditional narrative literature review may not operate from a registered protocol or formal eligibility framework at all. In that setting, the issue is less about violating a protocol and more about maintaining intellectual transparency. If the scope evolves substantially while reading, make sure the final review accurately represents what literature was considered and does not imply a systematic selection procedure that was never actually used.